Applying the right amount of irrigation at the right time without filling the soil profile reduces
unintended environmental impacts: nutrient leaching, emission of nitrous oxide (potent
greenhouse gas) and soil damage by compaction.

The literature for each of the 11 key trends is substantial, such that we could only undertake a limited review of each trend to identify potential issues or aspects to consider. Despite these challenges and limitations, the review yielded important insights into possible implications of different cultural, economic, environmental and social trends on triggers, thresholds and irreversibility of land-use change. Below we summarise results at two scales: global and New Zealand.

Wind is a difficult climatological variable to work with, and to model, because wind can vary so much over short distances and short time periods. However, surface winds are driven mainly by the large-scale circulation wich global climate models (GCMs) are generally able to capture adequately.

This is the full report of the social science project ‘RURALS’: Realistic, Useful and Reliable Research for Advancing Land based Sectors Sustainability, conducted by ESR for MSI/MPI in 2011-12. It presents a social science research strategy on responding to climate change in the land based sectors in New Zealand, including the context for the Strategy development and the technical reviews and consultation which led to the Strategy. A summary version of the Strategy “Responding to Climate Change in the Land based Sectors: A Social Science Research Strategy for New Zealand” (the Strategy), is also published as a separate document.

In the land-based sectors, agricultural production generally is a source of carbon, while
forestry can act as a sink. This report focuses on new research examining the iteraction of the two. The core of the research is the Lincoln Trade and Environment model (LTEM), a partial equilibrium model which links trade in NZ with the main trading countries overseas, through to production and associated environmental consequences. This research report discusses the issues, methodology and results from research expanding the model to include forestry. This was done by incorporating the capabilities of the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) into the LTEM and hence producing an integrated model of agricultural and forestry land-uses for NZ and overseas. The paper thereby reports on the development of a model of international trade that encompasses major agricultural commodities and forestry, complete
with linkages and feedback with the environment and differentiated international markets.

There is considerable evidence to suggest that the impacts of climate change will affect primary producers, disproportionately, in relation to other economic activities. Forestry, horticulture, and dairy depend not only on day-to-day climatic conditions, but have built their businesses around experience and understanding of a long-term mean. Delayed, insufficient, or even a failure to adapt will have significant costs and attendant effects on business survival. To support adaptation in the primary sector targeted mechanisms for information delivery, innovation, practice-change and knowledge transfer need to be enhanced. Therefore, the aim of this research was to identify novel methods of technology transfer and communication in order to support adaptation planning in the primary sector.

This technical report supports New Zealand’s land-based production sectors by reviewing impacts and identifying climate change adaptation options. This is achieved by examining ways to build resilience which also reduce vulnerabilities to both current and future climate variability.

This report focuses on the policy objectives of Australian governments and their support for institutions who are engaged in agriculture’s adaptation to climate change, in particular, their financial adaptation. The views of Australian federal and state government policy analysts were sought through extensive one-on-one interviews, with the aim of providing insight into the key policies that influence financial adaptation to climate change in Australia. The outcome provides both a broad perspective on the overall strategic direction of government policy within Australia as well as providing an industry perspective particularly in dairy and horticulture.

Responses to elevated CO2 were recorded for eight perennial ryegrass cultivars grown in the FACE site at Flock House. Genomic analyses were carried out on ryegrasses from the FACE treatment rings and the surrounding pasture. Growth of the ryegrasses was not changed under elevated CO2 but flowering dates were altered substantially. Early-flowering types flowered earlier than expected and later types were later than expected. Concentrations of the endophyte alkaloid epoxy-janthitrem were increased markedly with higher CO2. The potential risks to animal health imposed by elevated epoxy-janthitrem will need to be managed through plant breeding in future cultivars. None of the other endophyte alkaloids measured were changed by the CO2 treatment. The genomic analyses showed very little genetic variation in the old pasture ryegrass population at the FACE site after 17 year’s exposure to elevated CO2. This indicates that breeding for ryegrass performance in future CO2 conditions should initially be very widely based to optimise adaptation.

This farmers’ guide is an informal summary of the Evaluating Intensive Trajectories project (Contract Agreement ABDG30946) for the Ministry for Primary Industries as part of their Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) programme. A more detailed description of the results and rationale behind this farmers’ guide can be found in two reports found at http://www.argos.org.nz/slmacc-project.html

The Waiapu community possesses significant social capital. This plays a major role in underpinning a basic level of resilience. The community is highly resourceful but with a declining or literally eroding resource base. Low natural and financial capital, in particular, has trapped many in a cycle of incremental change unable to make the transformational changes that will significantly improve their wellbeing or the health of the catchment.

The wine industry is highly sensitive to variations in weather and climate, which can significantly affect both the quantity and quality of wine produced in a given year (Trought 2005). An inter-disciplinary research programme is underway, applying climate measurement and modelling techniques at high resolution in key wine-producing
regions of New Zealand to evaluate the risks posed by short and longer-term climate variability. These atmospheric models are being integrated with new phenological and crop models to help develop appropriate adaptation strategies to ensure long-term sustainability of the industry.

It is very difficult to say what the New Zealand primary industry and food system landscape will look like in 2050 and 2100. Global socio-economic trends may proceed along a highly globalised and sustainable pathway with subsequent low (or zero) greenhouse gas emissions and relatively mild climate changes; or they may proceed along a highly regionalised and resource-intensive pathway where greenhouse gas emissions are high and unabated and climate changes are at the top end of current projections. Or, it might be somewhere in between. Each one of these global pathways will have local, national and international consequences for the New Zealand primary industry and food system landscape.

The New Zealand Integrated Assessment Modelling System (NZIAMS) was developed between July 2010 and June 2013 by researchers at Landcare Research, AgResearch, New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, and Lincoln University. The project was led by Dr James Lennox, formerly of Landcare Research, who is currently a researcher at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Venice, Italy. Its development was funded by the Ministry for Primary Industries.

Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) projects funded for 2016/17