About SOPI
The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report twice a year. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
You can use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – June 2024
The food and fibre sector has performed remarkably well over the last few years. However, slower global growth, especially in our key export market, China, and a correction in commodity prices means food and fibre sector export revenue is forecast to decrease 5% to $54.6 billion in the year to 30 June 2024. Input costs are also high which is reducing producer profitability.
Looking ahead to the year to 30 June 2025, food and fibre export revenue is forecast to rebound 6% to $58.1 billion. Strong gains in dairy and horticulture export revenue are driving the increase. Forestry is expected to recover from supply side disruptions and meat and wool export revenue is expected to increase as prices recover. Most other sectors are also expected to increase.
Forecasts will be updated in the December 2024 SOPI.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) June 2024 [PDF, 28 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy
- Dairy export revenue is expected to decrease 7% to $24.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2024 due to lower global dairy prices. This is driven by a weakening of global demand and an increase in supply, specifically improved milk production in China.
- Looking to 2024/25, higher global dairy prices and a slight increase in domestic milk production is forecast to result in dairy export revenue increasing to $25.7 billion.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool export revenue is expected to decrease 6% to $11.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2024. Key meat export prices are expected to fall due to higher global red meat production and weaker global economic conditions.
- Looking to 2024/25, export revenue is forecast to begin to recover with 3% growth to $11.8 billion due to improving demand and lower global beef exports bolstering prices.
Forestry
- Forestry export revenue is expected to decrease 7% to $5.9 billion in the year to 30 June 2024. Supply-side shocks decreasing export volumes and weak global demand for processed wood products are expected to be partially offset by an increase in log export revenue.
- Looking to 2024/25, processed wood production is forecast to recover, lifting export revenue to $6.2 billion.
Horticulture
- Horticulture export revenue is expected to increase 1% to $7.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2024. Climatic conditions were favourable for most crops recovering from the impacts of the previous wet summers and cyclone damage. This was countered by weak demand for wine due to high global inventories and a poor season for avocados.
- Looking to 2024/25, assuming average climatic conditions, increasing volumes and prices are expected to boost export revenue to $8.0 billion.
Seafood
- Seafood export revenue is expected to increase 5% to reach $2.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2024. Export prices of key export species are expected to remain high due to robust demand and tight global supply.
- Looking to 2024/25, demand is expected to remain strong and improvements in aquaculture productivity is forecast to boost export revenue to $2.5 billion.
Arable
- Arable export revenue is expected to increase 12% to $310 million in the year to 30 June 2024 with increased returns in all export categories led by vegetable seeds. Seasonable conditions were mostly favourable through 2023/24, finishing with a good harvest.
- Looking to 2024/25, increases in vegetable seed and ryegrass are forecast to be offset by decreases in other categories to result in export revenue of $310 million.
Other primary sector exports
- Export revenue for the processed food and other products sector is expected to decrease 1% to $3.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2024, stemming largely from the ban on live animal exports by sea.
- Looking to 2024/25, export revenue is forecast to increase to $3.6 billion. Most product categories are expected to increase with the largest coming from innovative processed foods.
SOPI data
We also publish supplementary data tables for the reports.
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SOPI reports from 2012 to today
