This report addresses using scenarios to identify climate risks for the primary sector, different modelling methods to quantitatively estimate risk impacts and the costs/benefits of adaptation options,.and reviews indicator frameworks used by the US, UK and EU. The report recommends that risk assessment should include a range of risk drivers, including physical and socio-economic and that an indicator programme is needed.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, risk assessment, risk identification, scenarios, primary sector, indicators

This report addresses climate-change impacts on kiwifruit and apple, avocado, blueberry, cherry and wine grape. In the future obtaining adequate winter chill will become more challenging in many areas where these crops are currently grown, and this will be critical if the future climates resemble those of RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. At the same time, climate change could improve the suitability many locations for other growing criteria.

This report reviews the suitability of the FracLEACH parameter used to estimate the proportion of nitrogen (N) applied to agricultural land that is lost via leaching and runoff of N. The current inventory methodology employs a uniform FracLEACH of 0.07 of key N inputs, which is used for estimating a proportion of the indirect nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.

The NZ Greenhouse Gas Inventory assumes that limestone products have 100% purity, however the purity varies depending on which sedimentary period the limestone was deposited in. This report analyses a range of historic literature, data and new samples to provide an estimate of the actual purity of limestone and dolomite applied to agricultural soils.

The stock structure of tarakihi in New Zealand coastal waters was reviewed. Recent age compositions from commercial catches and trawl surveys indicate that eastern and western areas comprise two separate stocks of tarakihi. The eastern stock includes TAR 3, TAR 2, and the eastern portion of TAR 1 and TAR 7. The previous (2017) assessment for the eastern stock of tarakihi was updated and estimates of current (2021) stock status and yields are provided.

Commercial catch and effort data and fisheries observer records of catch and discards by species were used to estimate the rate and level of non-target catch and discards in the orange roughy and oreo trawl fisheries for fishing years 2002–03 to 2019–20. Estimates were made for broad categories of catch and discards including target species, QMS species, non-QMS fish, and non-QMS invertebrate species, and estimates of annual catch were made for several of the major individual non-target species.