About SOPI
The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report twice a year. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
You can use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – December 2024
Food and fibre sector export revenue is expected to bounce back by 7% to $56.9 billion in the year to June 2025, having bottomed out in the year prior. Export revenue dipped 7% in the year to June 2024 as it came off a record high in the previous year, driven by a correction in prices of key commodities. The price correction in 2023/24 also reflected slower global growth, especially in China, our largest market, as well as high global dairy and meat supplies.
The expected lift in export revenue for 2024/25 is primarily driven by rebounding prices on the back of tightening global supplies of key commodities, including dairy, beef, mutton, and seafood products. In addition, higher export volumes of dairy, forestry, seafood, and horticulture products are set to support export revenue growth.
Forecasts will be updated in the June 2025 SOPI.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) December 2024 [PDF, 8.6 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy
Dairy export revenue is forecast to increase 10% to $25.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2025. The increase comes off the back of a drop in export revenue in 2023/24.
Global dairy prices are expected to be higher in 2024/25 due to tight global supply from key dairy exporting regions such as the US and the EU. Global import demand has also strengthened.
Milk production and export volumes are expected to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Higher global dairy prices are likely to result in an increase in the all-company average farmgate milk price to $9.60 per kilogram of milksolids. This higher milk price combined with moderating farm expenses are expected to lift profitability this season.
Meat and wool
Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase slightly to $11.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2025 with rising prices offsetting declines in export volumes. Higher prices are being driven by tighter global beef and mutton supplies, as well as robust demand from Europe and the US.
The sector may not fully capitalise on higher prices due to lower production volumes from a smaller flock, lower lambing rates, and post-drought herd rebuilding. Sheep and beef farm profit is expected to decline in 2024/25 due to lower farmgate revenue and elevated expenses.
Forestry
Forestry export revenue is expected to rebound 4% to $6.0 billion in the year to 30 June 2025, recovering from domestic supply-side disruptions and slow global demand over the previous 2 years.
Early signs of increased building activity in China could lead to higher demand for logs and some processed wood products, but overall global demand remains low for wood products.
On the supply side, closure of some wood processing plants will lead to lower production capacity in the near term. Uncertainty remains due to the instability of global economic recovery, potential trade barriers, and continued high input costs.
Horticulture
Horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase by 12% to $8.0 billion in the year to 30 June 2025. This growth is primarily driven by the kiwifruit industry, attributed to a record 2024 crop and increased production volumes of gold kiwifruit in the 2025 season.
Wine export revenue is also projected to recover from a challenging 2023/24, supported by strong consumer demand for New Zealand wine.
Apple and pear export revenue is forecast to exceed $1.0 billion, spurred by recovering export volumes after the cyclone-affected 2023 season. Fresh and processed vegetable export revenue is also expected to recover, increasing by 7%.
Seafood
Seafood export revenue is forecast to increase 3% to reach $2.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2025 driven by continued high prices from sustained demand and tight global supply along with rebounding aquaculture production and export volumes. However, increased competition in the rock lobster export market in China poses downside risks to this forecast.
Recent declines in fuel costs have eased margin pressures for fish farmers, fishers, and processors and contribute to the industry’s positive outlook.
Arable
Arable export revenue is expected to grow by 4% to $360 million in the year to 30 June 2025. This increase builds on a 27% lift in revenue in 2023/24 driven by significantly higher vegetable, ryegrass, and clover seed exports.
Strong global demand, New Zealand’s reputation for high-quality products, and market diversification are driving growth in arable export revenue despite soft domestic demand, and volatile spot markets. Also supporting this forecast is a positive harvest outlook due to no major pest issues and favourable weather conditions.
Other primary sector exports
Export revenue for the processed food and other products sector is forecast to increase 1% to $3.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2025 driven by modest growth across most production categories, offsetting a decrease in export revenue from inedible oils being exported for use as biofuel feedstock in the US.
SOPI data
We also publish supplementary data tables for the reports.
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